Morgan Rogers' Rich Vein of Form Fuels Aston Villa's Surprising Push for Glory

It was two months ago that the young forward found himself on the Stadium of Light pitch, appearing bewildered as his coach scolded him for failing to anticipate a through-ball. During that period, as the club went six without a win, the question was if Rogers' form were an indicator or the source for the team's more general malaise.

“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”

A Touchline Reaction of Triumph

In the latest match, in contrast, the sideline response proved to be much more joyous. As Rogers drilled in his second strike to restore Villa's lead, the boss ripped off his coat, threw his arms wide and shouted in triumph. Villa continued to a 10th successive win and having failed to win their opening six games, are somehow only three points adrift of the leaders Arsenal.

Are They Genuine Title Contenders?

That’s a rather hard question to address. History, the traditional standing of this institution, argues against it. Moreover, they've rarely been wholly dominant this season, despite the fact the victories have stacked up.

As per statistical analysis, on just two occasions have Villa registered an expected goals figure notably superior than the opposition. For a side who have put together a ten-match winning streak, Villa look curiously susceptible – however right now the margins are falling their way.

The Rogers Recipe

The current approach appears to be to engage in a shootout with an opponent and wait for their star man to rescue them with some crisp finishes. It happened at Leeds, it happened against West Ham, and it happened when facing Manchester United.

The initial strike stemmed from a superb shot, curled right inside the goal frame from the corner of the box. His brace-completing goal proved to be a somewhat messier replica of the opener as he pounced on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.

“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”

A Formidable Weapon

Is It Sustainable?

Common sense dictates no. In the recent win, the opposition managed a greater number of attempts and more direct attempts. The team has secured their last eight victories by just one goal. The defence has been breached in nearly all of those fixtures.

Regression to the mean could be the biggest rival they will encounter as the season progresses. The forward, almost certainly, cannot keep on thrashing the ball into the net's top corner week in, week out.

A Case for Belief

Perhaps there is an alternative path whereby, instead of results trending towards performances, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Vital cogs might still return to peak condition.

  • The centre-forward might resume adding to his goal tally.
  • The attacking talent may rediscover the force he showed during his peak.
  • Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres will eventually come back from the treatment room, strengthening a periodically leaky defensive unit.

This could contain the possibility for a sustained push, but they surely cannot keep relying on Morgan Rogers.

Savoring the Moment

However, nobody expected this. Nobody thought the team would occupy third at Christmas. And most definitely earlier this season, few could imagine the midfielder now would be at the forefront of a championship pursuit while establishing himself as an essential England player.

This winning streak must be cherished for the very reason that it feels so unlikely. As the match-winner positioned himself before the home supporters after the match conducting the cheers, it was clear to be thoroughly enjoying it. As he deserves to. These runs of form are rare in football and must be appreciated.

John Torres
John Torres

A physicist specializing in magnetic resonance technologies with over 15 years of industry experience.